Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 30.499909 34.087166 38.236411 43.470302 50.017408 58.114121 69.191180
2025-04-06 24.970762 29.290013 34.738939 42.375421 53.285669 69.238576 96.601249
2025-04-13 22.648707 27.648994 34.443818 44.939358 62.105357 92.579351 164.469473
2025-04-20 20.165167 25.242416 32.481044 44.433653 66.057693 111.298769 261.440991
2025-04-27 18.519720 23.678320 31.343297 44.785075 71.595401 138.688996 506.097899
2025-05-04 17.273270 22.480693 30.496744 45.329172 77.796110 176.484211 1483.539203
2025-05-11 16.186539 21.365896 29.569486 45.445356 83.190409 223.079831 44083.221426
2025-05-18 15.142882 20.192522 28.358672 44.702468 86.179163 269.966723 NaN
2025-05-25 14.395185 19.402316 27.681069 44.870211 91.881881 355.979664 NaN
2025-06-01 13.675173 18.585717 26.846857 44.512308 95.967435 462.064928 NaN
2025-06-08 13.009808 17.800776 25.975608 43.890042 98.996801 598.842480 NaN
2025-06-15 12.431076 17.113559 25.207732 43.355747 102.213219 811.480410 NaN
2025-06-22 11.920255 16.512271 24.555552 43.020769 106.407109 1231.685880 NaN
2025-06-29 11.356816 15.786651 23.603969 41.795004 106.372609 1642.193133 NaN
2025-07-06 11.232142 15.798341 24.064021 44.227615 125.229624 26627.777186 NaN
2025-07-13 10.821296 15.286153 23.444612 43.704249 129.232915 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 10.524056 14.954231 23.154703 44.032379 138.795345 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 10.266430 14.675767 22.946259 44.555134 150.760601 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 9.993008 14.352695 22.616489 44.665329 160.636882 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 9.672749 13.928578 22.042027 43.942305 163.710128 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 9.442814 13.656722 21.768849 44.104808 175.025711 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 9.189946 13.330571 21.355074 43.756775 181.832696 NaN NaN
2025-08-31 8.934428 12.988297 20.883514 43.151837 185.810421 NaN NaN